🇪🇹 Ethiopia · Infrastructure · deal 3241

Construction Materials Supply & Project Management Services targeting Ethiopia's USD 14.6 Billion FY2025/26 Public Infrastructure Pipeline

15–28% expected €80k–€500k 18-36 months Medium risk Invest+Fly eligible

Why now

Ethiopia's federal budget for 2025/26 reached ETB 1.93 trillion (~USD 14.6 billion), nearly doubling year-on-year, with construction output expected to grow 9% in 2025 and a further 7.8% AAGR through 2029—creating sustained procurement volume. The USD 12.5 billion Bishoftu mega-airport and the USD 1.4 billion World Bank PRIME electrification programme together generate immediate tendering pipelines for materials suppliers, logistics firms, and project consultants across construction, equipment, IT, and professional services.

15–28%Expected ROI
€80k–€500kInvestment range
18-36 monthsTime horizon
69 ABI score 69 of 100 One 0–100 judgement from our analysis model, asked to weigh market growth, political stability, our network depth, timing and currency risk. A screening aid for ranking this list — not a rating, and not independently checked.

What we checked

  • Scored 69 of 100 by our analysis model, which ranks this list. Not an independent rating.
  • 4 source reports read and listed below.
  • No Abitech contact is placed in this market yet — introductions would be cold.
  • Desk analysis only. No audit, no site visit and no management meeting has taken place unless we tell you otherwise in writing.
CountryEthiopia
Sector, as filedConstruction & Infrastructure Services
Risk levelMedium
Time horizon18-36 months
Analysis dated23/08/2026
Listing valid until22/09/2026

What is driving it

  • Government capital expenditure nearly doubled in FY2025/26 to USD 14.6 billion, with road, energy, and institutional construction as the largest sub-categories
  • The Bishoftu mega-airport, PRIME electrification programme, and Safaricom network rollout create a multi-year, multi-sector procurement pipeline accessible via the federal e-GP tender portal
  • Ethiopia's SEZ and industrial park network (Hawassa, Bole Lemi, Kilinto, Kombolcha) generated USD 83 million in export revenue in nine months of FY2024/25 and continues to attract tenant fit-out and maintenance contracts

What could go wrong

  • Political instability and ethnic tensions in some regions (notably Oromia and Amhara) can disrupt supply chains, delay project timelines, and raise security costs for construction-adjacent businesses
  • Public procurement in Ethiopia is primarily conducted in Amharic, and payment cycles for government contracts can be lengthy—foreign SMEs should budget for working-capital buffers of 90–180 days

Full analysis

Ethiopia is in the midst of a sweeping economic liberalisation cycle that is reshaping its investment landscape as of mid-2026. FDI reached a record USD 4.32 billion in the 2025/26 fiscal year—an 8% year-on-year increase—driven by 528 new investment licences and macroeconomic reforms backed by a USD 3.4 billion IMF Extended Credit Facility. Three landmark regulatory shifts define the current window: (1) Directive 1082/2025 opening previously closed export, import, wholesale, and retail sectors to foreign capital, including raw coffee, oilseeds, and livestock exports; (2) the Banking Business Proclamation 1360/2025 allowing foreign ownership of up to 40–49% in Ethiopian banks; and (3) a new forex liberalisation directive (FXD/04/2026) permitting forward-exchange hedging and full currency retention for service exporters. Ethiopia is also advancing WTO accession negotiations—described as reaching 'a decisive juncture' in April 2026—which will further align its trade regime with global standards. Construction output is projected to grow at a 7.8% AAGR through 2029, anchored by the USD 12.5 billion Bishoftu mega-airport, the USD 1.4 billion World Bank PRIME electrification programme, and Safaricom Ethiopia's USD 1.6 billion network rollout. The Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX), launched in early 2025, adds a new capital-markets layer. Political fragility, birr depreciation risk, and residual forex liquidity constraints remain key headwinds.

Ethiopia's federal budget for 2025/26 reached ETB 1.93 trillion (~USD 14.6 billion), nearly doubling year-on-year, with construction output expected to grow 9% in 2025 and a further 7.8% AAGR through 2029—creating sustained procurement volume. The USD 12.5 billion Bishoftu mega-airport and the USD 1.4 billion World Bank PRIME electrification programme together generate immediate tendering pipelines for materials suppliers, logistics firms, and project consultants across construction, equipment, IT, and professional services.

Market drivers:

  • Government capital expenditure nearly doubled in FY2025/26 to USD 14.6 billion, with road, energy, and institutional construction as the largest sub-categories
  • The Bishoftu mega-airport, PRIME electrification programme, and Safaricom network rollout create a multi-year, multi-sector procurement pipeline accessible via the federal e-GP tender portal
  • Ethiopia's SEZ and industrial park network (Hawassa, Bole Lemi, Kilinto, Kombolcha) generated USD 83 million in export revenue in nine months of FY2024/25 and continues to attract tenant fit-out and maintenance contracts

Risks:

  • Political instability and ethnic tensions in some regions (notably Oromia and Amhara) can disrupt supply chains, delay project timelines, and raise security costs for construction-adjacent businesses
  • Public procurement in Ethiopia is primarily conducted in Amharic, and payment cycles for government contracts can be lengthy—foreign SMEs should budget for working-capital buffers of 90–180 days

Sources

What the analysis was built on. Some rows hold a headline, some hold the address of the report; both are printed as filed. We do not host the originals.

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